by Nolan Stumpf | Jun 27, 2023 | Electric Vehicles, Renewables, Solar
Solar fields can supply abundant, clean electricity – almost one-third of Wisconsin’s consumption by 2050 – using only a small portion of the state’s agricultural land. Nonetheless, solar energy development in agricultural areas raises new discussions of land use in Wisconsin. A recent report explores Wisconsin’s agricultural trends and outlines the potential solar energy has to sustain the state’s agricultural heritage, keep Wisconsin farmers in business, and provide environmental and economic benefits to the greater public. This blog will summarize the report’s findings and discuss the implications of solar energy development on land use for farmers in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin’s changing agricultural landscape
Wisconsin’s agricultural economy has changed substantially over the last several decades due to technological advancements, improved farm practices, evolving market conditions, and other macroeconomic trends. Data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service shows that the amount of actively cultivated farmland has decreased by 23% since 1982, alongside the number of farm operations (from 90,000 to 64,100 in 2022).
At the same time, due to advancements in practices and technology, corn and soybean yields have increased dramatically (69% for corn and 75% for soybeans). However, the market’s oversupply has caused inflation-adjusted prices for corn to gradually decrease since 1909. Real prices for corn in 2022 are 51% lower than in 1940 and 42% lower than in 1980. Commodity price volatility has also added financial uncertainty for farmers, with farmers experiencing large annual swings in the prices received for corn. The downward trend in real prices and constant volatility in nominal prices shows why corn producers and other Wisconsin farmers face growing pressure to scale up their operations or sell their land.
Enrollment in the USDA’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), an ecosystem services program aimed at improving soil health and managing the oversupply of crops, has been decreasing since the early 2000s in Wisconsin. However, about 200,000 acres of voluntarily retired farmland under the CRP in the state is planted with ground covers such as grasses, trees, and native plants in exchange for an annual payment from the federal government.
Achieving a net-zero economy in Wisconsin with solar energy
Recent trends have allowed farmers to incorporate solar developments into a portion of their property and, at the same time, continue farming and sustaining their agricultural businesses. Solar fields offer stable revenue streams for Wisconsin farmers and financial support to local governments through the state’s shared revenue formula. RENEW Wisconsin’s collaborative report, Achieving 100% Clean Energy in Wisconsin (100% Clean Energy Report), shows that solar development opportunities will grow for Wisconsin farmers over the next few decades. According to the report, solar energy will be Wisconsin’s predominant source of new emission-free electricity generation to achieve a net-zero economy. In the most economical net-zero scenario explored in the 100% Clean Energy Report, 28.3 Gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar would be installed by 2050.
Solar energy will cover a relatively small amount of land by 2050
Based on the 100% Clean Energy Report, assuming the land footprint for 1 MW of utility-scale solar is 7 acres, approximately 198,000 acres would be required to host utility-scale solar in Wisconsin by 2050. Our analysis assumed 7 acres per MW of utility-scale solar PV to account for the increased productivity of solar panels over time. As one of the leading renewable resource technologies for the clean energy transition, solar panel design and installation layout will likely improve in the coming years, meaning solar fields will generate more electricity with fewer total inputs – including land.
Building 28.3 GW of utility-scale solar capacity would require 198,000 acres of land, which is 0.57% of Wisconsin’s total land area (34.7 million acres). This would equate to 1.4% of total agricultural land (14.2 million acres) or about 2.4% of field cropland (8.4 million acres) in Wisconsin from another perspective. These percentages assume all of the 28.3 GW of solar would be sited on agricultural land, which is unlikely. Though utility-scale solar developments have predominately been sited on farmland in the past, a study from UW-Stevens Point shows the vast land area across the state that may be suitable for utility-scale solar development.
Ethanol and the future of energy farming
Farming for energy production is already common in Wisconsin, with about 37% of the corn grown used for ethanol. Wisconsin would only need to convert about 18% of corn-ethanol land to solar energy production by 2050 to achieve 28.3 GW of capacity. With a likely decrease in demand for corn-based ethanol needed by 2050 (due to the adoption of electric vehicles and substitution toward non-food crop feedstocks for biofuels), incorporating solar generation on farms is a way for Wisconsin farmers to help sustain their businesses.
A study by CLEAN Wisconsin demonstrates the efficiency of electric vehicles powered by solar energy over ethanol-powered vehicles. Their report finds that ethanol used in internal combustion engines requires about 85 times the amount of land to power the same amount of driving as solar-charged electric vehicles. Increased adoption of electric vehicles leads to decreasing gasoline demand and correspondingly diminishing the need for ethanol. With all else held constant, this trend will inexorably dampen corn prices received by the growers supplying local ethanol plants. Incorporating solar generation on farms is a way to sustain agriculture in Wisconsin, providing farmers with a stable revenue stream for years.
Co-benefits of solar energy on farms
Solar projects can provide beneficial ecosystem services to farmers and landowners in Wisconsin. Solar farms can last up to 35 years, allowing the land and soil underneath the arrays to rest and recover. Once a solar installation is decommissioned, the land can once again be farmed and will be more fertile when replanted, in contrast to residential or commercial development, which is much more permanent when complete [11]. Planting native plants and grasses amongst the arrays is becoming a standard practice, improving soil health and serving as pollinator environments.
In addition, advancements in design and technology have spurred research into agrivoltaics, or the simultaneous land use of solar energy generation and conventional agricultural activities. This co-location of activities provides many additional benefits, including dual revenue streams for the landowner and reduced heat stress on crops or grazing animals due to the shade of the solar panels. By altering the panels’ standard configurations and tilt schedules, researchers are investigating how to optimize crop yields and energy production.
Solar energy can help sustain Wisconsin farm businesses
Solar fields can supply almost one-third of Wisconsin’s electricity consumption in 2050 using a small portion of agricultural land. Nonetheless, agriculture is a significant part of Wisconsin’s economic and cultural identity, and Wisconsinites are connected to the image of Wisconsin’s landscape. As the farming industry continues to change, Wisconsin must allow farmers’ businesses to evolve. Solar developments can help family farms thrive with stable lease payments, support diverse soil health and ecosystem service benefits, and create local economic benefits. Wisconsin farmers and solar energy are helping to advance a stronger, healthier Wisconsin powered by clean energy.
by Andrew Kell | Dec 27, 2022 | Electric Vehicles, Electrification, Energy Storage, Health, Netzero Wisconsin, Renewables, Solar, Wind
This past year, a Project Team consisting of RENEW Wisconsin, Clean Wisconsin, and GridLab commissioned Evolved Energy Research and Cambridge Econometrics to provide modeling, analysis, and reporting for a Wisconsin Zero Carbon Study. The recently released Summary Report provides an excellent overview of the Study results and policy recommendations. This RENEW blog provides additional context and insight into the next steps.
The Technical Report, titled Achieving 100% Clean Energy in Wisconsin, was completed this past summer and provides a first-of-its-kind, economy-wide modeling approach to envision a Wisconsin transition to a zero-carbon future by 2050. The modeling included 1) a baseline scenario as a comparison reference, 2) a 100% Clean Electricity scenario, 3) a Net Zero Economy-wide scenario (also referred to as NZEW), and four additional sub-scenarios that envisioned the NZEW scenario with policy and economic constraints. With NZEW by 2050 as a base assumption, these sub-scenarios further explored scenarios including a) No Transmission Expansion, b) Accelerated Clean Electricity, c) Delayed Action (of electric vehicle and building electrification), and d) Limited Coal and Gas.
The modeling results show a viable zero-carbon future by 2050, but it is a future that requires collaborative planning, supporting policies, and economy-wide investments.
A Grid Evolution
Wisconsin’s current resource portfolio relies heavily on fossil fuel-generating capacity. The figure below, which provides the baseline 2022 capacity assumptions from the model, shows that about 70% of Wisconsin’s current generating capacity relies on coal or fossil gas as fuel sources.
The following pie chart is listed in Gigawatts (GW).
In order to achieve a carbon-free future, clearly existing fossil fuel-generating capacity needs to be replaced with clean energy resources. However, when contemplating the decarbonization of all sectors of the economy, there also needs to be an expansion of generating capacity to serve Wisconsin’s electricity needs by 2050 – a lot more clean energy capacity.
Modeling of the NZEW scenario estimates that when Wisconsin decarbonizes the transportation, building, and other sectors, electricity use will increase by over 160% by 2050, well over doubling Wisconsin’s demand for electricity. Electrification of these sectors is often referred to as ‘beneficial electrification’ as the transition implies moving away from fossil fuels to decarbonized electricity as a fuel source.
To be truly beneficial, the timing of electric vehicle (EV) charging will be essential for load balancing and efficient use of utility infrastructure. This way, while overall electricity usage goes up dramatically, price signals, automatic controls, and utility programs will all allow EVs to charge optimally throughout the year. Currently, it is most economical to charge EVs at night when prices are low. In the future, it may also make sense to send signals to charge during peak solar production during the summer noontime.
The figure below illustrates the capacity expansion needed on the supply side to meet electricity demand growth.
As a result of decarbonization of the grid and beneficial electrification, Wisconsin's demand for electricity in 2050 would be supplied by an estimated 31 Gigawatts (GW) of solar, 21 GW of wind, 7 GW of storage, 7 GW of clean gas, 2 GW hydrogen electrolyzer capacity, and 3 GW of dual fuel electric industrial boilers located in Wisconsin. Of the 31 GW of solar, the model assumed about 2.5 GW would come from rooftop solar based on information from a solar rooftop potential study. Utilities would need to import additional clean energy capacity from outside Wisconsin. The model estimated that imported clean energy would come from about 9.3 GW of solar and 6.3 GW of wind from out-of-state resources.
The figure below provides a snapshot of the clean generation portfolio serving Wisconsin by 2050 under the Net Zero Economy-wide modeling results.
The following pie chart is listed in Gigawatts (GW).
Utility-scale clean energy resources at this scale also require the expansion of transmission investments. For each of Wisconsin’s interties with Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois, the model estimates that 6 GW of transmission interties are needed for each of these three state interties. This equates to 18 GW of new transmission interties, which is about 3-to-4 times the amount of current Wisconsin transmission interties.
While gas capacity remains in all scenarios, gas serves as a reliability resource operating at just a 5% capacity factor and burning entirely clean, carbon-neutral fuels. In the ‘Limited Coal and Gas’ scenario, existing and less efficient gas units must remain online much longer and operate at much higher capacity factors because new, more efficient gas units are not allowed in this scenario.
In the ‘No Transmission Expansion’ scenario, in-state clean energy resources would have to expand by about 36% above the Net Zero Economy-wide scenario. In this scenario, all new generation capacity must be developed in Wisconsin, as higher capacity factor resources in other states cannot serve Wisconsin’s electricity needs. This scenario would also necessitate the expansion of ‘intrastate transmission’ within the borders of Wisconsin and add $1 billion in costs above the NZEW scenario.
Taking Emissions Down to Zero
In relation to a baseline scenario, the 100% Clean Electricity scenario will reduce total economy-wide carbon emissions by 24% by 2050. In this scenario, while the grid becomes carbon-free, transportation, building, and other sectors realize only modest decarbonization and still rely on fossil fuels to power cars, homes, and some industrial processes.
It is important to note that concentrating on the decarbonization of the electric grid by 2050 alone only gets Wisconsin to about a quarter of all reductions needed for a carbon-free future across all sectors of the economy. Additionally, in the Net Zero scenario, carbon sequestration and bunkering measures are needed to reduce emissions that come from marginal fossil gas resources. By 2050, a small segment of industries will still emit carbon, either because it is too costly to do otherwise or not technically feasible to eliminate completely. To achieve the target of zero emissions by 2050, the model chooses to rely on carbon sequestration, in which carbon is captured before being released into the atmosphere and then piped via pipeline to appropriate geologic sequestration areas in the country, safely sequestering the carbon.
A Real Benefits Plan
Following the Technical Report, Cambridge Econometrics released a report on The Economic Impacts of Decarbonization in Wisconsin. In combination with health outcomes modeled by Evolved Energy Resources, benefits of the Net Zero Economy-wide scenario include:
- $2 to $4.4 billion in avoided healthcare costs in 2050,
- 28 to 63 fewer deaths per million people from air pollution by 2050,
- 3% growth in Wisconsin’s Gross State Product by 2050, adding around $16 billion to Wisconsin’s economy,
- 68,000 additional Wisconsin jobs, and
- Lower energy costs for Wisconsin’s residents.
The benefits of a zero-carbon future outweigh the costs of the transition per the modeling results. Focusing on energy costs alone, economy-wide investments in renewable resources, heat pumps, EVs, etc., increase by about $111.1 billion in present value. However, the benefits of avoiding fossil fuel costs are about $110.6 billion in present value. When you add the health and economic growth benefits listed above, the net-zero investment makes sense from a business case perspective.
Jenna Greene, RENEW’s Energy Policy Fellow, is currently performing a cost-benefit analysis of the modeled scenarios using the Technical Report and Economic Impacts Report results. When cost-benefit results are available, this blog will be updated.
How We Get There
The transition to a zero-carbon future won’t be easy, as infrastructure build-out, technological innovation, and market development will be needed over the next few decades. As a result, we will need to form public-private partnerships, enact and implement policies, and design cross-sector planning processes that support this transition to ensure it is cost-effective. For quick reference, below is a set of key recommendations from a figure on page 19 of the Summary Report. A complete list of policy actions is provided at the conclusion of the Summary Report.
The release of our Zero Carbon Study is just the start of a dialog on how Wisconsin can reach zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Project Team is further collaborating with partners, businesses, legislators, and state and local government officials on the next steps. For further information, please contact Andrew Kell, Policy Analyst at RENEW Wisconsin, at andrew@renewwisconsin.org.
